Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

Created

Sat Jul 18 21:23:01 +0000 2020

Likes

124

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @Nate_Cohn @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 I think 25:1 (96%) vs. 100:1 (99%) are pretty different forecasts. And the gap in percentage terms will increase if the election gets closer, e.g. maybe you'll have Biden at 95% to win the popular vote with a 6-point lead when he "should" be at 80%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @Nate_Cohn @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 For example, it could be that polling gets more accurate over the course of say 1948-2012 but is now becoming less accurate again. That's also a plausible story that fits the data well but it has pretty different implications for 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @jbview @Nate_Cohn @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 It's not clear that you can't account for COVID empirically. We have some ways to account for it. But that notwithstanding, it might lead one to make more conservative choices in model-building overall, certainly including trying to leverage the entire data set... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated