Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 11, 2020

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Fri Jul 10 13:40:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

^^ Nor is it clear that the new cohort of cases is really priced into Trump's polling numbers yet. There actually haven't been that many polls over the past couple of weeks and these things can take a while to sink in. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the new cohort of rising cases in ~60% of the country is critical. People *may* have been able to buy into a recovery narrative by November if there had been two seasons' of improvement by then. But now we're also going to have a lost summer and school is dicey for fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Trump winning scenarios probably involve some combination of coronavirus improving + some legit Biden scandal or other new development that helps him + some rehashes of 2016 (Electoral College help, polls being a bit off). Not crazy! Could happen! But not easy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated