Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 11, 2020

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Thu Jul 09 23:53:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To the extent things slow down it might just be because enough people have had it that it eventually lowers R. His model estimates that by Labor Day, almost 20% of Arizonans will have had COVID, which is not far from some of the worst-affected areas (NYC, Sweden, Northern Italy). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And let's not forget that in March/April, the numbers came down because of lockdowns. Although states are reimposing some restrictions and people are being more careful, those aren't really happening now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, you can certainly conjure up scenarios where the COVID situation is looking *better* by mid-Fall. But it's hard to imagine scenarios where things feel roughly normal again by then; still likely to be reminders everywhere of a very difficult 8 months for the country. — PolitiTweet.org

Another question is whether the judgement is going to be retroactive and is just baked in now. No new development w… https://t.co/loot7LiiDQ

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated