Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Dec. 5, 2020

Created

Thu Jul 02 22:24:34 +0000 2020

Likes

208

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if we held at "only" 200K cases per day, deaths would probably increase some, but not necessarily a ton. The problem is, his model expects infections to keep going up to 265K. So that would get you to 530-1,060. That to say is, an increase from where we are currently. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He estimates the current IFR (infection fatality rate) is 0.2%-0.4%. This has actually fallen some from ~1.0% in the early stages of the epidemic. An IFR of 0.2%-0.4% on 200K new cases per day would lead to 400-800 deaths per day. By comparison, the current 7-day average is 527. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All of these parameters are educated guesses, of course. There's a ton of uncertainty. There may be scenarios where deaths don't increase that much. But it probably means that the increase in new cases has to stop, like, really soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated