Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 29, 2020

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Thu Jul 02 22:22:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He estimates the current IFR (infection fatality rate) is 0.2%-0.4%. This has actually fallen some from ~1.0% in the early stages of the epidemic. An IFR of 0.2%-0.4% on 200K new cases per day would lead to 400-800 deaths per day. By comparison, the current 7-day average is 527. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Will all these new cases result in more deaths? Here's one view: The @youyanggu model estimates there are *actually* around 200K! new symptomatic COVID-19 infections per day in the US. We're only capturing around 1/4 of these through testing, he estimates. https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if we held at "only" 200K cases per day, deaths would probably increase some, but not necessarily a ton. The problem is, his model expects infections to keep going up to 265K. So that would get you to 530-1,060. That to say is, an increase from where we are currently. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated