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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 29, 2020

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Thu Jul 02 13:48:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure, the signals that states send by what business are open/closed can matter. So, it's complicated. And also, what things are open/closed isn't an exogenous variable; it partly reflects political pressure, which in turn reflects people's subjective perceptions of safety. — PolitiTweet.org

Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin

The evidence for “people will stay home if there’s an outbreak no matter what” is very strong, but not sure the sec… https://t.co/rTgpy0LonU

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Throughout this crisis, there's been evidence that people's behavior is only loosely tied to a state's formal degree of openness. So there should perhaps be more explanations rooted in "people thought it was safe/got bored/complacent"; maybe not as simple as "reopened too soon". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But the fact is the recent spikes don't actually line up all that well with re-openings, either timing-wise (since they began in April and have been gradual; not a sudden rush of re-openings on June 1) or geographically (e.g. also happening in CA, which has been quite cautious). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated