Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 29, 2020

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Thu Jul 02 13:37:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Throughout this crisis, there's been evidence that people's behavior is only loosely tied to a state's formal degree of openness. So there should perhaps be more explanations rooted in "people thought it was safe/got bored/complacent"; maybe not as simple as "reopened too soon". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To some extent I just wonder if any state/metro that was largely spared the first time around is going to have problems. CA is one example, but Ohio—which by all accounts was proactive and smart and had relatively low numbers in March/April—is also seeing its metrics rise. https://t.co/WBWeaa9glV — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure, the signals that states send by what business are open/closed can matter. So, it's complicated. And also, what things are open/closed isn't an exogenous variable; it partly reflects political pressure, which in turn reflects people's subjective perceptions of safety. — PolitiTweet.org

The evidence for “people will stay home if there’s an outbreak no matter what” is very strong, but not sure the sec… https://t.co/rTgpy0LonU

Posted July 2, 2020 Hibernated