Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 19, 2020

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Fri Jun 26 18:28:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something to think about: re-openings have been occurring gradually since late April in different states/counties. If you had a metric averaging out how open different states are, it would likely show a fairly linear pattern. So why is there a nonlinear increase in cases now? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is misleading. As he says at the end of the thread, the spike in deaths yesterday was caused by New Jersey now listing "probable deaths" in its official totals. Outside of that deaths are still falling, though there's a good chance IMO they'll begin rising again later. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Obviously some of that gets to the nature of exponential growth. An R of 1.3 isn't *that* different than an R of 1.1, but played out over a few weeks, it makes a lot of difference. Still, a more complete story probably includes premature re-openings coupled with other stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 26, 2020 Hibernated