Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:44:47 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All right, that's it! If you want even more detail on the methodology, you can find it here. Also taping a podcast on this shortly, which we'll have out soon. https://t.co/FxbzezloWI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our polling averages do *not* correct for that kind of thing. They're entirely based on the polls, albeit using the polls in some "fancy" ways. Our forecast model, conversely (not released yet) will blend the polls with other priors/methods to smooth things out a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins We use a prior based on the historical RV vs LV gap. Generally LV polls help Republicans but hurt incumbents, so a bit of a mixed bag for Trump this year. Then the prior is adjusted as we collect polls that provide both RV and LV results. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated