Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:43:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our polling averages do *not* correct for that kind of thing. They're entirely based on the polls, albeit using the polls in some "fancy" ways. Our forecast model, conversely (not released yet) will blend the polls with other priors/methods to smooth things out a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Right now, for instance, Biden is up 10 points in MI but 5 points in PA. I'm not sure I buy that they're really that different, or even that MI is necessarily the better state for Biden. But MI polling is often weird, and there hasn't been much high-quality PA polling lately. https://t.co/Waxnyug2r9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All right, that's it! If you want even more detail on the methodology, you can find it here. Also taping a podcast on this shortly, which we'll have out soon. https://t.co/FxbzezloWI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated