Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Wed Jun 17 23:05:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This graph compares the total number ever infected via @youyanggu versus current estimates of R via https://t.co/LwOqS5Fl1c. There is a strong (correlation = -0.69) inverse relationship. The *less* COVID a state had before, the *faster* it's spreading now. https://t.co/Hm4gKAPUyW — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This dynamic is interesting but complicated. While it's plausible there's a relationship between political partnership and COVID spread, e.g. if Trump voters are doing less distancing, right now by far the best predictor of a state's R is how many people had COVID before. — PolitiTweet.org

I made a chart. On average, blue states have seen steadily declining coronavirus infections since mid-April. On ave… https://t.co/EOAG30ZZSK

Posted June 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Probably also some effects due to weather, as mentioned before. If you control for the total number ever infected and google searches for "air conditioning" (as a proxy for people being indoors vs. outdoors) Trump margin of victory has no effect on current R. https://t.co/YTyvOZX56B — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 17, 2020 Hibernated