Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Elasticity ratings for 2020! Elasticity scores reflect how much a state’s polls would be expected to change based on a change in national. e.g. if Idaho’s elasticity score is 1.1, a 5-point swing in national polls would be expected to produce a 1.1 x 5 = 5.5-point swing in Idaho. https://t.co/9BIk53SsSw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. Religious white Christians are the most reliably Republican voters. Black voters are the most reliably Democratic ones (other nonwhite groups to a slightly lesser degree). So states with a lot of irreligious whites tend to be swingy. — PolitiTweet.org