Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Mon Jun 01 19:32:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In fact, the number of deaths through the end of the month almost exactly matched what the consensus of expert models expected on May 4. But those models got little attention in the media. https://t.co/EcO0msAlUk https://t.co/jlaRKirVJx — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What actually happened? We've averaged 942 deaths and 21K cases per day over the past week (via @COVID19Tracking). So way off from those supposed projections. But here's the thing: this isn't a surprise. The actual numbers have been very close to the true expert consensus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hard to think of a better way to facilitate complacency and undermine trust in experts than to constantly emphasize worst-case outcomes and treat them as though they're the base case. Usually the worst case doesn't come to pass. But the actual outcomes can still be very bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 1, 2020 Hibernated