Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Mon Jun 01 19:29:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What actually happened? We've averaged 942 deaths and 21K cases per day over the past week (via @COVID19Tracking). So way off from those supposed projections. But here's the thing: this isn't a surprise. The actual numbers have been very close to the true expert consensus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4 weeks ago there was tons of media coverage of "leaked White House projections" that supposedly showed deaths rising to 3K/day and cases to 200K/day by today. As I said, these projections never made sense and shouldn't have been treated so credulously. https://t.co/pivgOjiJfg — PolitiTweet.org

Why are *reported* deaths in this slide so different than projected deaths? Was this a model originally developed i… https://t.co/BQ8P1Zj3tM

Posted June 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In fact, the number of deaths through the end of the month almost exactly matched what the consensus of expert models expected on May 4. But those models got little attention in the media. https://t.co/EcO0msAlUk https://t.co/jlaRKirVJx — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 1, 2020 Hibernated