Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Wed May 20 14:30:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias But it's not just educational attainment. There are a lot of sources of bias, and if the polling community focuses more on sources that could produce a D bias (which seems *very* likely post 2016), it's not clear where you'd expect the bias of a polling average to end up. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I really appreciate smart folks who are looking at individual polls and pointing out potential flaws. I don't do that so much these days; I tend to stay very focused on the macro. As a macro strategy, "take the weighted average and account for uncertainty" is still hard to beat. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There can also be the issue of overkill, e.g. pollsters introduce 3 or 4 changes to try to combat D bias. It turns out only one of those changes (e.g. education weighting) is correct. The other ones introduce an R bias. That's basically what happened in the UK in 2017. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated