Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Wed May 20 14:27:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I really appreciate smart folks who are looking at individual polls and pointing out potential flaws. I don't do that so much these days; I tend to stay very focused on the macro. As a macro strategy, "take the weighted average and account for uncertainty" is still hard to beat. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A good example of overcompensation is the 2017 UK election, where after several years of a pro-Labour bias, pollsters started doing some *really* dodgy things to basically just slant their results toward Conservatives and wound up way low on Labour. https://t.co/GTjBmg9OjD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias But it's not just educational attainment. There are a lot of sources of bias, and if the polling community focuses more on sources that could produce a D bias (which seems *very* likely post 2016), it's not clear where you'd expect the bias of a polling average to end up. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 20, 2020 Hibernated