Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 19 22:10:34 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes @SeanTrende @bwreed @guypbenson @RameshPonnuru I mean, it depends on what you mean by huge. If one city has an initial cluster on Feb. 20 with an R of 2.2, and another has an initial cluster on March 1 with an R of 1.7, those will produce hugely different results after a couple weeks (roughly 10-fold by March 15). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes @SeanTrende @bwreed @guypbenson @RameshPonnuru It is colder, though (especially in March). And it's poorer. And undoubtedly there is a lot of stochasticity, especially in the early phases where there are varying numbers of early introductions from place to place and nobody is taking any precautions. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo @JamesSurowiecki @chrislhayes @SeanTrende @bwreed @guypbenson @RameshPonnuru I think that intuition is right, though it depends on how we're specifying the question. Interventions (masks, social distancing) can/should dampen differences in R that result from density and environmental factors, as should whatever reduction in susceptibility. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated