Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 19 15:31:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Importantly also, there's less uncertainty in the very near term. That is, it's unlikely there's a huge spike or rapid decline by the end of this month. It's the accumulation over time. Deaths growing at 10% a week vs. shrinking at 10% makes a big difference over a few months. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But look at the uncertainty! Many unknowns. It's not hard to imagine some parameters where we're down to "just" 300 deaths a day (or fewer) by mid-August! Or have bounced back to 3,000 (or more)! IMO this reflects a well-designed model that accounts for real-world uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, the "ackshawlly, 6 feet is an arbitrary distance" folks aren't super helpful. Of course it's arbitrary. You don't magically go from RISKY at 5.99' to SAFE at 6.01'. Instead risk presumably declines as some nonlinear function of distance X exposure. — PolitiTweet.org

With wind, the viral distribution is so diffuse that it is likely not clinically significant. https://t.co/fGSQlXyXtq

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated