Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Tue May 19 15:27:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But look at the uncertainty! Many unknowns. It's not hard to imagine some parameters where we're down to "just" 300 deaths a day (or fewer) by mid-August! Or have bounced back to 3,000 (or more)! IMO this reflects a well-designed model that accounts for real-world uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These @youyanggu projections are interesting. If his model had to make a modal projection, it would be that the US will plateau somewhere near the recent total of ~1,300 deaths per day as restrictions are relaxed to the point where we get an R of ~1. https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1 https://t.co/7xi655aCxm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Importantly also, there's less uncertainty in the very near term. That is, it's unlikely there's a huge spike or rapid decline by the end of this month. It's the accumulation over time. Deaths growing at 10% a week vs. shrinking at 10% makes a big difference over a few months. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2020 Hibernated