Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 2, 2020

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Sun May 17 18:11:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I don't know what you mean by "even if you control for testing & seasonality". The positive test % has slowly but steadily *declined* in Texas. That's important evidence, though not dispositive, but much better than looking at the raw # of cases when tests have rapidly increased. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's not at all clear that the later claims are wrong. Many analyses suggest that R<=1 in Texas, which means the reported increase in cases is in fact due to testing. https://t.co/oAQ2y08bJ5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris Right and other smart people have worked on the problem and come to different conclusions. It is intrinsically a difficult problem to solve without more information on the types of people being tested, and I'm not persuaded you've found a better method than say rt-live — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated