Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 2, 2020

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Sun May 17 17:36:56 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's not at all clear that the later claims are wrong. Many analyses suggest that R<=1 in Texas, which means the reported increase in cases is in fact due to testing. https://t.co/oAQ2y08bJ5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris That's moving the goalposts a lot, though. You get media segments about cases spiking in Texas. Instead it's a question of a slight decline, a plateau or perhaps a slight increase when you look at the data more robustly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I don't know what you mean by "even if you control for testing & seasonality". The positive test % has slowly but steadily *declined* in Texas. That's important evidence, though not dispositive, but much better than looking at the raw # of cases when tests have rapidly increased. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 17, 2020 Hibernated