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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 2, 2020

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Tue May 12 23:31:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah there are like 4 confounding issues: 1) "Opening" is often incremental (many things were never closed and only some of the closed things are opening) but is portrayed in the media as absolute 2) People's actual behavior is only loosely tied to a state's official policies — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

The coronavirus numbers in the US have taken a turn sharply for the better over the past week or two in a ways that… https://t.co/WQ3HLbtX9o

Posted May 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Folks, I don't have a prediction for what happens next. There are forces pulling in opposite directions (less distancing, but more masks, weather may matter, etc.) so the range of possibilities is wide. But the numbers HAVE gotten appreciably better over the past week or so. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3) Some factors are tending to produce improvement (mask-wearing, warmer weather, more testing) at the same time opening up may increase spread 4. On top of all that, the data is inherently fairly noisy and there are lots of debates about how to account for tests, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 12, 2020 Hibernated