Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Thu May 07 17:41:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is, it's probably the combination of social distancing + nontrivial % immunity that's producing the relatively steep declines in NYC and Italy. So those declines might be unrealistic to expect elsewhere in places that apply the same policies but don't have as much immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do kind of worry that failure to account for this property may also create confusion. If 20% of people in NYC are immune, or 30% in Stockholm, that has a material effect on why the numbers look different in those places than others (e.g. Wash. DC) where immunity might be <5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd love to get more precise data on mask-wearing by state. These regional differences seem like they could be material. Also huge differences by country (interesting that it's low in Canada and the UK, two places that have had trouble bending their curves down). https://t.co/ChdgFB5mAT — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 7, 2020 Hibernated