Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Thu May 07 17:41:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do kind of worry that failure to account for this property may also create confusion. If 20% of people in NYC are immune, or 30% in Stockholm, that has a material effect on why the numbers look different in those places than others (e.g. Wash. DC) where immunity might be <5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've seen "herd immunity" used in different ways by different folks. I'm trying to communicate the idea that the more people are immune, the slower the disease will spread, other things held equal. I'll avoid "herd immunity" going forward if something different is coming across. — PolitiTweet.org

This is dangerously inaccurate. There is no such thing as "partial herd immunity" with 20% immune. Herd immunity wi… https://t.co/ljGxnefPO9

Posted May 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is, it's probably the combination of social distancing + nontrivial % immunity that's producing the relatively steep declines in NYC and Italy. So those declines might be unrealistic to expect elsewhere in places that apply the same policies but don't have as much immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 7, 2020 Hibernated