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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Wed May 06 17:26:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo @interfluidity I think the broad intuition is also incorrect. Most models suggest heterogeneity *lowers* the nationwide herd immunity threshold, although there are fierce debates about whether this is a meaningful effect or a negligible one. https://t.co/VdTPR0CJ2C https://t.co/FzHLB4yLvx — PolitiTweet.org

Carl T. Bergstrom @CT_Bergstrom

3. Some people have raised concerns about whether a basic SIR model adequately captures the qualitative features an… https://t.co/UVBKYrAhPg

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo @interfluidity This isn't correct because R varies by subgroup (the estimate of 2.5 or whatever is a population average) and therefore the herd immunity threshold varies by subgroup. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo @interfluidity Yeah, I agree it's all very complicated. And none of the models seem to deal super well with what happens when people have been in lockdown and those lockdowns are relaxed, which could have further unpredictable effects. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 6, 2020 Hibernated