Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Tue May 05 21:53:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While it is possible that we will see some big spikes as a result of states re-opening, the base case is probably a continued mix of plateaus, mild declines and mild increases, perhaps in a slightly different/worse mix than before (i.e. some declines turn into plateaus). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Having done this for a while now, I would say two days is too soon to jump to any conclusions. If you see something for four or five days in a row, or say 7 days out of 8, then maybe we can start revising our priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Moreover, the correlation between changes in state policies and changes in the # of cases is liable to be noisy. There may/probably will be something there if you look rigorously. But for every case that fit the prevailing narrative, there may be others that contradict it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated