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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 24, 2020

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Tue May 05 14:50:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's about what you get based on our urbanization index, which seems to fit the data pretty well. I think it's not the *number* of contacts above a certain threshold that matters so much as the *amount* of contact, which is a function of space X time. https://t.co/A3PMwQa5vJ — PolitiTweet.org

Carl Bialik @CarlBialik

@NateSilver538 Curious how you got to 50-100%. Commute alone seems like it could push that much higher, for mean if not median.

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, if you're looking at density, you really need to use some of natural logarithm. NYC might have, I don't know, 50-100% more COVID-relevant social interaction than Montana per capita. It doesn't have 15000% more or whatever you'd get from the raw density numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In Montana you still have household contacts and other close personal contacts, and those are the ones that likely matter the most. Incidental contacts vary a lot more, but they are only part of the picture and perhaps not the primary means of infection, especially post-lockdown. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 5, 2020 Hibernated