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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 20, 2020

Created

Sun May 03 22:55:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Apart from warmer weather, it's also worth keeping in mind that we're getting to the point in time when a lot of people expected the lockdowns to end. Here is some polling data on that: https://t.co/VcIixdC1mu https://t.co/11bEE4srrR — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When I've seen smart technical criticisms of IHME, I've tried to amplify/add to those (see below). It's also not my field, though, so as an outsider, my comments are going be more tempered than they would be for say an election or NBA model. https://t.co/ji4cAJgpjV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Thread. It looks like the IHME model is fond of drawing curves that are quite symmetric, i.e. they expect deaths to… https://t.co/9Cd4K4z1zN

Posted May 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most people did *not* expect the lockdowns to last only a few weeks, even though the initial time frame for stay-at-home orders was a few weeks in many places. 58% *did* expect them to end within a month or two, however. Now that it's May, it's been "a month or two", roughly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 3, 2020 Hibernated

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