Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For explanatory variables, I looked at the following: 1) Where a state is on the spectrum between "open" and "closed", per the NYT: https://t.co/7FrL01jcwB 2) The number of COVID-19 deaths per-capita. 3) Trump's margin of victory in '16. 4) Urbanization: https://t.co/GONEVDLgSe — PolitiTweet.org

If you calculate this number for each person (well, each Census Tract) in the state, take the natural logarithm, th… https://t.co/wJ5CZIr0wA

Posted May 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Data: I ran a regression where mobility is the dependent variable. Specifically, I used Apple's mobility numbers for driving (the only data they have at the state level). This measures the RELATIVE change vs. a state's pre-COVID mobility in Jan/Feb. https://t.co/32iSFYgSGd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

5) Weather, measured as the change from average summer temperatures to average winter temperatures in a state. The change is what counts here since Apple's baseline mobility data was captured in the winter. It shows which states are warming up the most. https://t.co/tBJCamrIfC — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 3, 2020 Hibernated