Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 14, 2020

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Wed Apr 29 14:13:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By comparison, the Imperial College study projected a hospitalization rate of 4.4%. And that was on the low end of projections. The NYT/U. of Toronto model let you choose between 5% and 20%, which was a common range of assumptions at the time. https://t.co/dKv9t4i27C — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In New York, about 2% of *infections* have resulted in hospitalizations, if you buy the state's (IMO relatively credible) serological data saying 15% of NYS / 25% of NYC got COVID-19 at some point. The rate is about the same in NYC and non-NYC parts of the state. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We know that COVID-19 cases *can* overwhelm hospitals if there are a great number of cases in one place at one time. See NYC and Lombardy. Even in NY, though, per Cuomo, the peak wasn't as high as the state's projections and some temporary hospitals were never/very lightly used. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 29, 2020 Hibernated