Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Tue Apr 28 22:29:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The following dynamic seems reasonably likely to me: Step 1) News articles emphasize dire predictions for reopening based on models that wrongly assume all restrictions are lifted and people go totally back to normal. https://t.co/uC32932Kwm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the cases, though, that data has started to look better. Tests up, cases down, so the percentage of positive tests is down quite a bit. A lot of this is driven by NY state, which is down to just 16% positives in its testing today (19% for NYC) from a peak of 50% (59% for NYC). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Step 2) In fact, changes are incremental, people are cautious (e.g. by wearing masks), some people stay home, perhaps weather and improved testing helps a bit. Step 3) Cases flatline or get modestly worse, but far short of dire predictions. Step 4) "See, experts wrong again!" — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated