Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Tue Apr 28 16:42:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved He's talking about the opposite, re-opening Upstate first. But, yeah, we'll see. Plausible that it will be surprisingly "easy" to keep R low-ish in NYC if those serology numbers are right. Also possible it merely offsets factors that make R inherently high in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If true (and I can think of some confounders so I'm not 100% confident) this seems quite important. The fatality rate wouldn't be ~constant across different places. It would be worse in places with severe outbreaks when people are exposed multiple times. https://t.co/rGAEzPsghG https://t.co/zqmF9c2xxE — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 @kmedved It's Sweden-adjacent. But Sweden didn't have the period of suppression up front, and I think Sweden is implicitly targeting an R in the low 1's, rather than ~1.0. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated