Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Mon Apr 27 23:28:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think a lot of governors would tolerate that. It actually seems marginally optimistic, if anything. There's a lot of talk about opening up in places where death counts are currently higher on a per capita basis. That's still an additional 50K-70K deaths in the "plateau" phase. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The US and most other countries will likely tolerate some baseline level of deaths to open their countries back up. How high? I don't know. But say the US gets down to 1/5 of the current levels and hold there for 6 months until effective treatments lower the IFR, so 300-400/day… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ClaraJeffery It's not clear whether that would snuff it mostly out. Or it might snuff it *mostly* out, but far from *completely* out (with a large number of essential workers unable to socially distance) and it would start to increase again on July 2. It's genuinely a really hard problem. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 28, 2020 Hibernated