Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Mon Apr 27 14:27:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My guess is 3 > 2 and 2 > 1, especially given the narrow range of interventions available in the short run. (If every country could "do South Korea", it might be different, but they can't on short notice.) That could lead to some wrong conclusions about what works, what doesn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The buckets are something like: 1) Policy interventions 2) Immutable location-based characteristics, e.g. geography, density, age structure of the population, "culture", weather 3) Luck. How much undetected community spread was there before March? Perhaps strains matter also. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: How predictive are presidential election polls 200 or 100 or 5 days out from Election Day? @geoffreyvs has some great visu… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Retweet Hibernated