Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Mon Apr 27 14:23:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The buckets are something like: 1) Policy interventions 2) Immutable location-based characteristics, e.g. geography, density, age structure of the population, "culture", weather 3) Luck. How much undetected community spread was there before March? Perhaps strains matter also. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A big challenge in determining the effectiveness of policy interventions (i.e. social distancing) is that there are really several buckets that determine how bad the outbreak is in any given area and it's not clear policy interventions are the most important one in the short run. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My guess is 3 > 2 and 2 > 1, especially given the narrow range of interventions available in the short run. (If every country could "do South Korea", it might be different, but they can't on short notice.) That could lead to some wrong conclusions about what works, what doesn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 27, 2020 Hibernated