Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Fri Apr 24 16:30:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So what you're really measuring is not "how many people have had COVID-19 as of now?" but more something like "how many people had COVID-19 as of a couple of weeks ago?" This can bias the numbers downward, especially if you're on the upswing of the epidemic or near the peak. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The last issue—lags—is more straightforward, but has been a bit overlooked. It takes some time for antibodies to develop from initial onset of symptoms, apparently a couple of weeks. https://t.co/9WBcYiJVXz — PolitiTweet.org

Definitely an underestimate given the lag from onset to seroconversion. Will need to know the test used to know th… https://t.co/zlt8yJuzFZ

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, there can be a lag between when these tests are *conducted* and when they're *reported* to the media. This is not a very big issue in the NY study (their program started quite recently). But always check the dates. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated