Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 12, 2020

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Fri Apr 24 16:30:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The last issue—lags—is more straightforward, but has been a bit overlooked. It takes some time for antibodies to develop from initial onset of symptoms, apparently a couple of weeks. https://t.co/9WBcYiJVXz — PolitiTweet.org

Definitely an underestimate given the lag from onset to seroconversion. Will need to know the test used to know th… https://t.co/zlt8yJuzFZ

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm speculating here. Maybe the selection effects run in the opposite directions than I'm guessing. But these are nontrivial issues and not super easy to correct for. Although, weighting based on demographics may help a bit. New York *is* trying to do that, as best as I can tell. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So what you're really measuring is not "how many people have had COVID-19 as of now?" but more something like "how many people had COVID-19 as of a couple of weeks ago?" This can bias the numbers downward, especially if you're on the upswing of the epidemic or near the peak. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 24, 2020 Hibernated