Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 7, 2020

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Thu Apr 23 17:17:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To repeat: In these studies, there are many potential biases that can run in both directions. I think people mis-learned lessons from e.g. the not-very-well-done Santa Clara Co. study, and therefore assume the biases inherently tend to be upward. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think that's at all clear. My initial reaction was the opposite. People out-and-about are less likely to have been feeling symptoms so that could bias the numbers downward. https://t.co/RHkJlXpSht — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Thread notes that these tests were done by sampling people out-and-about at grocery stores, etc., wh… https://t.co/FyBtyoQm1U

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In a place where the underlying incidence of disease spread is low (Santa Clara), false positives are often the most pertinent bias and will tend to bias the numbers upward. The underlying incidence is *not* low in the NYC metro area, however. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated