Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 7, 2020

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Thu Apr 23 16:46:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think that's at all clear. My initial reaction was the opposite. People out-and-about are less likely to have been feeling symptoms so that could bias the numbers downward. https://t.co/RHkJlXpSht — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Thread notes that these tests were done by sampling people out-and-about at grocery stores, etc., wh… https://t.co/FyBtyoQm1U

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Assuming there's a slight lag between when these tests were conducted and when the results were published, and taking everything else at face value, we'd be looking at a ~13-15x undercount in NYC and maybe more like ~8-10x in NY outside NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To repeat: In these studies, there are many potential biases that can run in both directions. I think people mis-learned lessons from e.g. the not-very-well-done Santa Clara Co. study, and therefore assume the biases inherently tend to be upward. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 23, 2020 Hibernated