Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 6, 2020

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Wed Apr 22 14:52:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of well-intended and well-written critiques of the Santa Clara Co. serology study but at some point it's not that complicated. A test that *could* have a false positive rate of up to ~2-3% isn't saying very much if it detects 2-3% positives in some population. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CarlBialik @SethS_D As far as I can tell, there are at least three schools of thought on how R0 is used in practice, so I'm just saying R by which I mean "how fast it's spreading in practice". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the flip side, this is much less of a concern in areas with a greater underlying incidence in the population. If an area has been 15% infected, then a potential false positive rate of 1% or 2% or 3% isn't going to matter as much. So I'd look at those studies instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 22, 2020 Hibernated