Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 6, 2020

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Tue Apr 21 20:33:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Positive test rate by week in Lombardy, Italy Week ended 3/24: 47.9% 3/31: 33.0% 4/7: 20.4% 4/14: 16.2% 4/21: 10.6% Positive test rate by week in rest of Italy Week ended 3/24: 17.5% 3/31: 16.0% 4/7: 14.0% 4/14: 11.8% 4/21: 9.9% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also relevant here is Italy, where there’s been a much steeper decline in positive test rates in Lombardy, the worst-affected region, than in the rest of the country. Both peaked during the week of 3/24 but Lombardy has fallen notably faster: — PolitiTweet.org

Yeah, it is not crazy to ask questions about this stuff, particularly given how we're now seeing notably steeper de… https://t.co/C9JOJjvUXj

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind the context here. Do NYC and Lombardy possibly have meaningful levels of herd immunity? Possibly (enough that it may show up in the data) but exactly how much is hard to say (probably far from complete). Think about how bad things had to be to get there, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated