Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 3, 2020

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Tue Apr 21 15:17:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus, jurisdictions can vary in how thorough they are. France has done an admirable job of trying to count nursing home deaths, for instance. And if a place *is* trying to count probable deaths, as in NYC, there's going to be considerably less undercounting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, inferring from excess mortality data can be tricky. Being in lockdown with heavy strain on hospitals can have various effects that push other types of deaths up (e.g. you have a heart attack, the ambulance takes longer to come & you die) and down (fewer traffic accidents). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, all of those qualifiers I put at the top are important: "wealthy Western countries with bad outbreaks of COVID-19". That's where these numbers, at least the ones that are getting highlighted in the media, mostly come from. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 21, 2020 Hibernated