Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 3, 2020

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Mon Apr 20 21:21:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo People getting tested is a biased sample, but FWIW NYC's tests were ~60%+ at the peak. Also, these tests can have high-ish false negatives. And, people who get the disease will only test positive for a few weeks whereas antibody tests will pick up on whether they ever had it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@R_Thaler @dmorey I tend to agree that the behavior is maybe 70-90% voluntary. But I wonder if the signals sent by state and local officials matter also, though. Also wonder what happens when the fear tends to subside because people see & hear less about rising case counts. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo Did 50% of NYC get COVID at some point? I'd bet against it, but it's not crazy to think the numbers could be pretty high. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 20, 2020 Hibernated