Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Wed Apr 15 16:14:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These are complicated questions. It doesn't mean "you can always work off probabilities". Sometimes, you probably do want something closer to "proof", both in terms of how you communicate about something and in terms of implementing policy recommendations. It's case-specific. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The discussion about weather is sort of like the discussion about masks. People are looking for incontrovertible proof when a reasonably high probability (that masks help; that warmer weather reduces spread) is probably enough to help guide our actions. — PolitiTweet.org

This has been @NateSilver538’s beat, but I keep reading articles that have headlines like “don’t count on warm weat… https://t.co/GcD7CUFVts

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But I think there is often a default toward "must disprove the null hypothesis to X degree of significance" among people who are generally very smart (e.g. scientists) when that sometimes is a good paradigm but also sometimes isn't in the midst of a real-time, real-world event. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated