Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Wed Apr 15 14:26:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Right, that's the counter: that he pursued a high-ceiling, low-floor strategy, in which he was likely to wind up with a lot of 2nd/3rd place finishes, but relatively few wins. I mostly agree with that. But I also think many things about what Bernie did were very impressive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, the White House's model—if this is actually a representation of it, this is from their press briefing—*also* seemed to assume a lot of symmetry. I'm worried that models that imply symmetry will overestimate how fast deaths will fall, even if they get the peak about right. https://t.co/Guf4nYmkSN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, how steep the downslope is reflects choices societies are making. And the equilibrium, at least in Western countries, seems to be that they're closing enough stuff down to produce a decline (good!) but not a particularly fast one. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Yeah, the way I thought about it is that they keep the shape of a catastrophic outbreak even if coun… https://t.co/40g9nii7o3

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated