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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Wed Apr 15 14:17:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think Bernie made a lot of mistakes, but one of the funny things is you get a lot more criticism if you're the 2nd-place candidate than if you're the 17th-place candidate, when it should be the other way around. Bernie did a lot of stuff that worked pretty well. — PolitiTweet.org

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Bernie has been subjected to a thousand postmortems so it's probably worth asking what everyone else in the field d… https://t.co/KnIfe4C0Gd

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Indeed asymmetry is what you might expect given best guesses about how well social distancing works. Here are curves from Imperial College, for instance, which imagine turning social on & off. Note that they're somewhat asymmetric; cases don't decline quite as fast as they rose. https://t.co/JVFSAlhmCM — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, the White House's model—if this is actually a representation of it, this is from their press briefing—*also* seemed to assume a lot of symmetry. I'm worried that models that imply symmetry will overestimate how fast deaths will fall, even if they get the peak about right. https://t.co/Guf4nYmkSN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 15, 2020 Hibernated