Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 26, 2020

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Tue Apr 14 21:10:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I were looking for things to critique about the COVID-19 models, I'd be looking at their assumptions about hospitalization rates, which among other things seem to vary a lot from model to model. (As low as ~3% to as high as ~20% in some I've seen.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of the "trick" in building models is in figuring out which assumptions you can get mildly wrong and which ones you can't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We won't really know the hospitalization rate until we know the number of undiagnosed cases. The lower end of that range might end up being pretty good though maybe not if there are a *lot* of undetected cases (say 50x rather than 10x). The upper end…I have questions about. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated