Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 26, 2020

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Tue Apr 14 20:17:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of the "trick" in building models is in figuring out which assumptions you can get mildly wrong and which ones you can't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To put it another way, you should *not* necessarily expect a bell-shaped curve where the descent is as rapid as the ascent. Instead, the descent could take a while— even if social distancing measures are maintained. That's what we're seeing in Italy and now NYC. https://t.co/yI1XEQPM6l — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I were looking for things to critique about the COVID-19 models, I'd be looking at their assumptions about hospitalization rates, which among other things seem to vary a lot from model to model. (As low as ~3% to as high as ~20% in some I've seen.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 14, 2020 Hibernated