Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Tue Apr 07 17:31:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Pandemic risk was underpriced in Europe and N. America (though not in Asia) and will now be approximately properly priced" is a reasonable hypothesis, but the societal changes that flow from that are probably an order of magnitude less sweeping than these polemics would assume. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm especially perplexed by the "NEW PARADIGM!!" stuff when it comes from people who think markets (in a broad sense) are reasonably efficient because it's not at all obvious why the equilibrium 12-18+ months (post-vaccine) from today should greatly differ from the one today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah I don't think people realize how stochastic some of this is. Like, literally 1 or 2 super-spreaders arriving in the wrong place at the wrong time (say mid Feb.) could double the number of cases that a state/metro area ultimately gets. — PolitiTweet.org

@goingfulltankie I don't think it's that simple. I believe, for example, within Canada, some parts got hit harder d… https://t.co/2j8yf7sodZ

Posted April 7, 2020 Hibernated