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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Tue Apr 07 17:17:42 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias In between Q and S. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, people badly overestimate trends and underestimate mean-reversion. So you should expect that people *really* over-extrapolate from "things that have changed for a few weeks because of mass social distancing" to "OMG A BRAND NEW PARADIGM!!". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm especially perplexed by the "NEW PARADIGM!!" stuff when it comes from people who think markets (in a broad sense) are reasonably efficient because it's not at all obvious why the equilibrium 12-18+ months (post-vaccine) from today should greatly differ from the one today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 7, 2020 Hibernated